Happenstance or intention

Malcolm Gladwell is the latest literary thrill, a NEW YORKER staff writer, author of three books, all now on the New York TIMES’ best-seller lists. His latest, OUTLIERS, studies the effects of statistics and the environments in which those statistics occur. He writes persuasively—a competent wordsmith who picks the data he uses with care.

As one example, he cites children selected for school years based on birth date. He shows that ‘older’ (i.e. born early in the school year) athletes are more likely to succeed than ‘younger’ (i.e. born late). Older students are bigger and stronger, do better, get selected for extra training, go on to great careers. That centuries-old problem has afflicted students everywhere birth date is used as a criterion for acceptance.

His arguments run out of steam when he turns to his own family background in Jamaica. What he describes has to do with ageless, timeless human spirit and hope, little to do with the ‘outlier’ effect—the person whose performance is a statistical anomaly. He admits this.

Gladwell falls down seriously in one area that undercuts his statistical arguments. He could have anticipated the problem and covered it. He didn’t. It has to do with the basic unfairness of life, beyond the cognitive control of any living human.

Genetics determine destiny in many ways, yet who can pick a genetically desirable forbear—race, gender, color?

Geography has a huge effect—if you were born in the wrong place at the wrong time,  you’re out.

Environment? A killer. If you were in a place where the environment (schools, culture, even breathable/nonbreathable atmosphere) was not desirable, you were doomed.

Worst of all, association: if born and raised to families where advantage was inborn, and/or introduced to the right people at the right time, you are way ahead in almost any profession or calling.

This last is called ‘the lucky sperm club,’ though the term applies in many areas of life, including genetics. Don’t believe? Look at the dynasties in many areas who make sure that their offspring succeed, talented or not. Look at writers who, once accepted, can get anything they write published regardless of quality or skill. Meritocracy is for most people a mirage.

Life is unfair.

Do we succeed through happenstance or intention. Gladwell does not answer this question.